尊敬的用户您好，这是来自FT中文网的温馨提示：如您对更多FT中文网的内容感兴趣，请在苹果应用商店或谷歌应用市场搜索“FT中文网”，下载FT中文网的官方应用。
Donald Trump has spent much of his presidential campaign planting seeds of doubt about the integrity of the voting process, laying the groundwork for challenging the results of the election should Kamala Harris win.
唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)在其总统竞选活动的大部分时间里都在对投票过程的公正性播下怀疑的种子，为卡玛拉•哈里斯(Kamala Harris)获胜后挑战选举结果打下基础。
The former president and his allies have boosted their rhetoric in recent months and are already claiming that the Democratic party is trying to steal the election, echoing their attempt to overturn the results four years ago.
这位前总统及其盟友近几个月来加大了言论攻势，已经开始声称民主党试图窃取选举结果，这与四年前他们试图推翻选举结果的做法如出一辙。
In 2020, Trump falsely claimed that Joe Biden had stolen the election, mounting legal challenges and pressuring election officials to reverse the result. His efforts culminated with a mob of violent supporters storming the US Capitol to try to prevent certification of the results on January 6 2021.
2020年，特朗普谎称乔•拜登(Joe Biden)窃取了大选结果，提出法律挑战并向选举官员施压，试图推翻选举结果。2021年1月6日，一群暴力支持者冲进美国国会大厦，试图阻止选举结果的认证。
While Trump’s response to losing in 2020 was chaotic, this year the former president has crafted a plan to legally challenge results at the local, state and federal levels. The Republican party is deploying 230,000 volunteers to monitor alleged fraud in swing states. The party and its affiliated groups have also already filed dozens of lawsuits — many of which have failed — alleging that illegal migrants are on the voter rolls.
虽然特朗普对2020年失败的反应很混乱，但今年这位前总统制定了一项计划，在地方、州和联邦层面对大选结果提出法律质疑。共和党正在部署23万名志愿者，以监测摇摆州的涉嫌欺诈行为。该党及其附属团体也已提起数十起诉讼，指控非法移民在选民名单上，其中许多诉讼都失败了。
Here is what Trump could do during this year’s election.
以下是特朗普在今年大选中可能采取的行动。
Accuse the Democrats of cheating
指责民主党作弊
Trump has made claims of cheating a central message of his recent campaign events, suggesting he will cry fraud if election night does not go his way.
特朗普在最近的竞选活动中把指控作弊作为核心信息，暗示如果选举之夜没有按照他的预期进行，他就会大喊作弊。
“Demonic” Democrats are “fighting so hard to steal this damn thing”, Trump said at a rally in the swing state of Pennsylvania on Sunday. He also said he “shouldn’t have left” the White House when Biden won in 2020 since “we did so well”.
特朗普上周日在摇摆州宾夕法尼亚州的一次集会上说，“恶魔般的”民主党人“拼命窃取这个该死的东西”。他还说，2020年拜登获胜时，他“不应该离开”白宫，因为“我们做得很好”。
“The only thing that can stop us is the cheating. It’s the only thing that can stop us,” Trump said at a town hall hosted by conservative media personality Tucker Carlson in Glendale, Arizona, on Thursday. “If we can keep that cheating down, we’re going to have a tremendous victory.”
“唯一能阻止我们的就是作弊。这是唯一能阻止我们的东西，“特朗普周四在亚利桑那州格伦代尔由保守派媒体人塔克•卡尔森(Tucker Carlso)主持的市政厅会议上说，“如果我们能减少作弊行为，我们将取得巨大胜利”。
At a rally in North Carolina on Saturday, Trump said Democrats were against voter identification laws because “they want to cheat. There’s no other reason. They want to cheat. And they do cheat. They cheat like hell.”
上周六在北卡罗来纳州的一次集会上，特朗普表示，民主党人反对选民身份验证法是因为“他们想作弊。没有其他原因。他们想作弊。而且他们确实在作弊。他们的作弊得很厉害。”
Trump has encouraged his supporters to report any cheating they see at the polls, as has his billionaire backer Elon Musk. The ex-president’s election denying backers have continued to flood social media with conspiracy theories.
特朗普鼓励他的支持者举报他们在投票站看到的任何作弊行为，他的亿万富翁支持者埃隆•马斯克(Elon Musk)也是如此。这位前总统的选举否认支持者继续在社交媒体上大肆散布阴谋论。
Question the integrity of slow vote counts
质疑计票缓慢的可信度
During his rally in Pennsylvania on Sunday, Trump questioned the length of time taken to count votes, raising concerns that on election night he could say slow tabulations were a sign of fraud:
上周日在宾夕法尼亚州的集会上，特朗普质疑计票时间过长，让人担心他可能在选举之夜称计票缓慢是作弊的迹象：
I’m hearing now they will take weeks [to finish counting ballots]. Can you imagine? They spend all this money on machines and they are going to say ‘we may take an extra 12 days’ and what do you think happens during the 12 days? What do you think happens? These elections have to be decided by 9pm, 10pm, 11pm Tuesday night.
我现在听说他们需要几周的时间（才能完成计票）。你能想象吗？他们在机器上花了这么多钱，却要说‘我们可能需要再花12天’，你觉得这12天里会发生什么？你认为会发生什么？这些选举结果必须在周二晚上9点、10点、11点之前确定。
Four years ago, Trump declared victory in the early hours of the morning after election day, before the race had been called. He also wanted ballot counting to stop, claiming that any more tabulated votes would be fraudulent because he was ahead in certain swing states.
四年前，特朗普在选举日结束后的凌晨宣布获胜，当时选情尚未明朗。他还希望停止计票，声称任何更多的计票都是欺诈，因为他在某些摇摆州领先。
The former president could also seize on the “red mirage”, in which a Republican is in the lead before all the votes have been tallied because in-person vote results are reported more quickly than mail-in ballots, which are typically more heavily used by Democrats and lead to a “blue shift”.
这位前总统还可能抓住“红色幻影”(red mirage)，即在所有选票统计之前，共和党人处于领先地位，因为现场投票的结果比邮寄选票报告得更快，而民主党人通常更频繁使用邮寄选票，从而导致“蓝移”(blue shift)。
The Harris campaign expects Trump to declare victory on election night regardless of whether there is a result. “He wants to sow doubt about a loss that he anticipates is coming . . . I’ll just say it won’t work,” said a senior campaign official. “He did this before, it failed. If he does it again, it will fail.”
哈里斯竞选团队预计，无论结果如何，特朗普都将在选举之夜宣布胜利。“他想给他预料到的失败埋下伏笔……我只能说这行不通。”一位高级竞选官员表示，“他以前这样做过，失败了。如果他再做这么做，还会失败。”
Focus on Pennsylvania
聚焦宾夕法尼亚州
Trump and Harris have been campaigning fiercely in the swing state of Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral college votes making it the biggest prize on election night.
特朗普和哈里斯在摇摆州宾夕法尼亚州展开了激烈的竞选活动，宾夕法尼亚州的19张选举人团票使其成为大选之夜的最大奖项。
Trump has claimed at rallies and in social media posts that electoral fraud has already happened in the state. “If you have a mail-in ballot, get that damn ballot in, please, immediately, because they’ve already started cheating in Lancaster,” he told supporters in Allentown, Pennsylvania on October 29. “They’ve cheated. We caught them with 2,600 votes. Now, we caught them cold.”
特朗普在集会和社交媒体上声称，该州已经发生了选举舞弊。“如果你有邮寄选票，请立即把那张该死的选票寄过来，因为他们已经开始在兰开斯特作弊了。”他于10月29日在宾夕法尼亚州阿伦敦对支持者说，“他们已经作弊了。我们发现他们篡改了2600张选票。现在，我们抓住了他们的把柄。”
He made the same claim a day earlier, posting on his Truth Social platform: “WHAT IS GOING ON IN PENNSYLVANIA???”
一天前，他在自己的Truth Social平台上发布了同样的声明：“宾夕法尼亚州怎么回事？？？”
Election officials in Lancaster are examining approximately 2,500 suspicious voter registration applications, not ballots. If the former president loses Pennsylvania, he could build upon his claims about the city’s votes.
兰开斯特的选举官员正在检查大约2500份可疑的选民登记申请，而不是选票。如果前总统输掉宾夕法尼亚州，他可能会继续声称该市的选票有问题。
Trump’s ability to disseminate his election doubts has been helped by social media and prolific posts from his allies, particularly Musk. The Tesla chief wrote on Sunday that the Lancaster claims were “true” in an X post viewed nearly 20mn times.
特朗普传播其选举疑虑的能力得到了社交媒体和其盟友（尤其是马斯克）大量帖子的帮助。特斯拉(Tesla)首席执行官马斯克上周日在X发帖称，对兰卡斯特的指控是“真实的”，这篇帖子被浏览了近2000万次。
Musk also took to X, his social media platform, on Sunday to say “Pennsylvania is on track for a major Republican victory” in a post seen 21.5mn times that could lead Trump’s supporters to question a loss in the state.
马斯克上周日还在他的社交媒体平台X上发文称，“宾夕法尼亚州有望取得共和党的重大胜利”，这篇帖子被浏览了2150万次，可能会让特朗普的支持者对该州的失利产生质疑。
Go to court
诉诸法庭
If Trump wins, he has threatened multiple times to throw those who “cheat” during the election in jail.
如果特朗普获胜，他曾多次威胁要将那些在选举中“作弊”的人送进监狱。
“WHEN I WIN, those people that CHEATED will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the Law, which will include long term prison sentences so that this Depravity of Justice does not happen again,” he posted to Truth Social on September 7.
9月7日，他在Truth Social上发帖称：“如果我赢了，作弊的人将受到法律最大程度的起诉，其中包括长期监禁，以避免这种剥夺正义的情况再次发生。”
Voters, election officials and even donors were added to the list by Trump.
选民、选举官员甚至捐助者都被特朗普列入了名单。
“Please beware that this legal exposure extends to Lawyers, Political Operatives, Donors, Illegal Voters, & Corrupt Election Officials. Those involved in unscrupulous behaviour will be sought out, caught, and prosecuted at levels, unfortunately, never seen before in our Country.”
“请注意，这一法律风险将延伸至律师、政治操作人员、捐赠者、非法选民和腐败的选举官员。不幸的是，那些参与不端行为的人将被找出、抓获并受到起诉，其程度在我们国家是前所未有的。”
He reposted the same statement late last month.
他在上月底重新发布了同样的声明。
If Trump loses, however, he will not be in a position to pressure election officials in the way he did as president in 2020.
不过，如果特朗普败选，他将无法像2020年担任总统时那样向选举官员施压。